Enlargement countries - industry and service statistics

Data extracted in May 2023.

Planned article update: May 2024.

Highlights

Türkiye’s industrial output increase was the highest among the Western Balkans and Türkiye, with 78.9% (between 2011 and 2022), while Albania came second, with 66.6% (between 2011 and 2021).

Domestic output prices in industry in Türkiye increased by 715.1% between 2012 and 2022.

The volume of sales indices in Montenegro increased by 94.4% between 2012 and 2022.

Calendar adjusted indices of production in industry (NACE Rev. 2), 2011-2022

This article is part of an online publication and provides information on a range of industry and services statistics for the Western Balkans and Türkiye and compares this with the corresponding data for the European Union (EU). Within this region, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Türkiye are candidate countries, while Kosovo* has the status of potential candidate.

Data for Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, granted candidate status or European perspective by the European Council in June 2022, are not included in this article; Statistics Explained articles on the European Neighbourhood Policy-East countries are available here.

The article provides statistics for several business cycle indicators, including: the industrial production index, the industrial domestic output price index, construction production and costs indices, and the volume of sales index for retail trade. While these short-term indicators are usually produced on a monthly or quarterly basis, in this article only annual indices are presented in order to give a broad overview of developments during the period 2011-2022.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Full article

Industrial production index

At the onset of the global financial and economic crisis in 2009, there was a sharp contraction in industrial activity. However, by 2011 the industrial production index had returned to growth in most of the Western Balkans and Türkiye as well as in the EU (see Table 1).

Table 1: Calendar adjusted indices of production in industry (NACE Rev. 2), 2011-2022
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_a) and Eurostat data collection

All countries of the Western Balkans and Türkiye for which data are available (no data for Kosovo) recorded growth in industrial output over the period. It is possible to evaluate the extent of the recovery from the crisis by comparing the levels of output in 2011 with the most recent data available for industrial production indices, either 2021 or 2022 depending on the economy; note that no comparison is available for Kosovo. Industrial output in Montenegro was 5.4 % higher in 2022 than in 2011, in Bosnia and Herzegovina it was 11.9 % higher, in North Macedonia it was 14.3 % higher and in Serbia it was 23.8 % higher. Two of the countries stood out in terms of the growth of their industrial output from 2011 to 2022: in Albania, output was 66.6 % higher in 2021 than in 2011, despite falls in 2016-2017 and 2020; in Türkiye, output went up 78.9 % between 2011 and 2022, which was the highest growth in this group of countries, despite a slight fall in 2019 (the first since the 2009 crisis).

Over the period 2011-2022, the EU recorded a significative growth of 12.0 %. The decline in 2012 (down 2.0 %) and in 2013 (down 0.6 %) turned into six consecutive years of growth for EU industrial output, ranging between 1.2 % in 2014 and 2018 and 3.3 % in 2017. This recovery was short-lived as further reductions in output followed in 2019 (down 0.2 %) and in 2020 (down 7.3 %). However, the EU reported a significant increase in industrial output in 2021 (up 9.1 %). The COVID-19 pandemic caused all countries to experience a slowdown in activity as output fell in 2020, except for Türkiye.

Production changes by main industrial grouping

Figure 1 presents the changes in the volume of output according to main industrial groups (MIG). These groups include intermediate goods, capital goods, durable consumer goods, non-durable consumer goods and electricity.

Figure 1: Calendar adjusted indices of production in industry (NACE Rev. 2) by main industrial group, 2022
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_a)

Among the Western Balkans and Türkiye for which data is available (no data for Albania and Kosovo), Bosnia and Herzegovina and Türkiye are the only countries with no fall of production in the industry. However, Bosnia and Herzegovina is also the country with the lowest increase in the production of durable consumer goods (up 3.5 %). In contrast, Montenegro had the highest growth of durable consumer goods (up 305.0 %) but the biggest decline in the production of capital goods (down 32.3 %) and non-durable consumer goods (down 22.4 %). North Macedonia had the strongest decrease in the production of intermediate goods (down 1.1 %) but the highest growth in the production of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 24.3 %). Serbia is the country for which intermediate goods increased the most (up 51.4 %) but also the country with the strongest decline in the production of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 7.4 %). Türkiye had the highest growth in the output of capital goods with +60.1 % over the same period. The highest increase in the output of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply was also reported in Türkiye, with +24.2 %.

The change in the production levels of the EU between 2015 and 2021 were more moderate than in most of the Western Balkans and Türkiye. The smallest growth was observed for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 0.6 %), while the largest increase was for non-durable consumer goods (up 20.8 %).

Domestic output price indices

The development of domestic output price indices — also known as domestic producer price indices (PPIs) — for industry reflects price changes in goods that are sold by manufacturers; they provide an early indication of inflation, and can be found in Table 2. One of the key drivers in the development of output price indices is global demand for energy resources, in particular, crude oil. Indeed, in recent years the price of oil has fluctuated far more than the price of many other goods. This has had a direct impact on costs faced by manufacturers in a range of industrial activities, with oil price fluctuations often being passed down the production chain between interlinked activities.

Table 2: Domestic output price indices in industry (NACE Rev. 2), 2011-2022
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_inppd_a)

Among the Western Balkans and Türkiye (no data available for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo), the overall change of domestic industrial output prices over the latest 10-year period was positive, except in Albania where there was a slight fall (down 1.1 %) between 2014 and 2021 (no data available prior to 2014 and for 2022). Montenegro recorded an increase of 20.1 % between 2012 and 2022. Between 2012 and 2022, increases of 28.5 % and 39.5 % were reported for North Macedonia and Serbia, respectively, while a much larger increase was reported for Türkiye (715.1 %).

In 2011 and 2012, EU industrial output prices rose by 1.6 % and 2.7 %, respectively, as they recovered from the fall experienced during the global financial and economic crisis. Thereafter, price falls were observed each year between 2013 and 2016. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, domestic industrial output prices increased again by 3.2 %, 3.4 % and 0.9 %, respectively. Most recently, in 2021, domestic industrial output prices increased by 12.4 % and, in 2022, increased by 34.3 %. Overall, EU industrial output prices in 2021 were 52.7 % higher than they had been at the mid-point of the crisis in 2011.

Construction production and cost indices

Figure 2 presents the production index for construction in the Western Balkans and Türkiye, and the EU.

Figure 2: Calendar adjusted indices of production in construction (NACE Rev. 2), 2011-2022
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_copr_a) and Eurostat data collection

Among the Western Balkans and Türkiye, the effects of the global financial and economic crisis on construction were most significantly apparent in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Albania. Indeed, these two countries’ production index for construction fell each and every year during the period 2011-2013. However, from their level in 2011, Albania’s production index increased by most than three quarters (81.7 %) by 2022, while Bosnia and Herzegovina’s index declined by 2.8 %. The time series for Türkiye is shorter and shows an increase of 16.9 % between 2011 and 2016 (more recent data not available). Between 2011 and 2014, North Macedonia had relatively low levels of construction output but reported an increase of 25.7 % in 2022 compared to 2011, with decreases in 2017, 2018, 2021 and 2022. Construction in Serbia was multiplied by more than three quarters (increase of 78.1 %) between 2011 and 2022, even though it experienced large declines in 2013 and in 2022. The increase of Montenegro’s index of production in construction, +145.8 %, was the highest during the period analysed (2011-2022).

The EU had a similar development to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania, that is, a negative growth each year during the period 2011-2013, returning to annual growth only in 2014. From 2011, the EU index of production for construction increased by 7.8 % in 2022. Between 2013 and 2019, construction output grew each year, with the overall growth in this period totalling 13.1 %.

Over the period 2011-2022, there were generally modest increases each year in the construction cost index for new residential buildings (see Figure 3) in Albania (up 12.8 %) and North Macedonia (up 57.8 %), while there were much stronger increases in Türkiye (up 683.5 %), in particular in 2018, 2021 and 2022. By contrast, the gross index of costs for residential buildings in Montenegro fell during several years and declined by 10.3 % overall between 2011 and 2021 (latest available data). In Kosovo, gross index of costs for residential buildings increased by 2.7 % between 2014 and 2018 (data available only for that period). In the EU, there was an overall growth of 36.1 % over the period 2011-2022.

Figure 3: Construction cost index for new residential buildings (NACE Rev. 2), 2011-2022
(index 2015=100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_copi_a) and Eurostat data collection

Volume of sales index for retail trade

The volume of sales index is a measure of turnover in the retail trade sector, adjusted to remove price changes (inflation). Figure 4 provides data for this indicator over the period 2011-2022 and shows that the volume of sales index among all Western Balkans and Türkiye for which data are available increased in 2022 as compared to 2011 levels. There are no data for Kosovo.

Figure 4: Calendar adjusted volume of sales for retail trade (NACE Rev. 2), 2011-2022
(index 2015 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_a)

Between 2011 and 2022, North Macedonia had the lowest change in the volume of sales index, up 8.4 %. Serbia and Albania followed with an overall increase of 48.1 % and 52.3 % respectively, where Serbia had an uninterrupted growth during the period 2013-2022 and Albania during 2011-2022 only to fall in 2020. In contrast, the volume of sales indices in Türkiye and Bosnia and Herzegovina, rose by 80.4 % and 84.2 % overall, respectively, with falls in 2019 (Türkiye) and 2020 (Bosnia and Herzegovina). Montenegro’s volume of sales index showed uninterrupted growth during the period 2011-2021 and reported a 94.4 % overall growth during this period. During the period under consideration, the volume of sales index in the EU fell by a relatively small margin during the early years shown in Figure 4, with an overall increase of 20.2 % between 2011 and 2022.

Source data for tables and graphs

Enlargement countries — industry and services: tables and figures

Data sources

Data for the Western Balkans and Türkiye are collected for a wide range of indicators each year through a questionnaire that is sent by Eurostat to candidate countries or potential candidates. A network of contacts has been established for updating these questionnaires, generally within the national statistical offices, but potentially including representatives of other data-producing organisations (for example, central banks or government ministries). The statistics shown in this article are made available free-of-charge on Eurostat’s website, together with a wide range of other socio-economic indicators collected as part of this initiative.

Traditionally, short-term business statistics (STS) were concentrated on industrial and construction activities, and to a lesser extent retail trade. Since the middle of the 1990s, major developments in official statistics within the EU have seen short-term data collection efforts focus increasingly on services. These data are provided in the form of indices that allow the most rapid assessment of the economic climate within industry, construction and services, providing an early evaluation of recent developments for a range of activities. STS show developments over time, and so may be used to calculate rates of change, typically showing comparisons with the month or quarter before, or the same period of the previous year: the data presented here are annual series derived from monthly or quarterly series. Retail trade indices have particular importance because of the role of retail trade as an interface between producers and final customers, allowing retail sales turnover and volume of sales indices to be used as short-term indicators for final domestic demand by households.

Tables in this article use the following notation:

Value in italics	data value is forecasted, provisional or estimated and is therefore likely to change;
:	not available.

Context

The profile and use of Short-term business statistics (STS) has expanded, as information flows have become global and the latest news release for an indicator may have significant effects on financial markets or on decisions taken by central banks and business leaders. STS are a key resource for those who follow developments in the business cycle, or for those who wish to trace recent developments within a particular industrial, construction or service activity. Some of the most important STS indicators are included within the principal European economic indicators (PEEIs) that are essential to the European Central Bank for conducting monetary policy within the euro area. Three PEEIs concern industrial short-term business statistics (the production index, output prices of the domestic market and import prices), a further two PEEIs concern construction short-term business statistics (the production index and building permits), while three more concern services short-term business statistics (the volume of sales in retail trade, turnover in other services and services producer prices).

While basic principles and institutional frameworks for producing statistics are already in place, the Western Balkans and Türkiye are expected to increase progressively the quantity and quality of their data and to transmit these data to Eurostat in the context of the EU enlargement process. EU standards in the field of statistics require the existence of a statistical infrastructure based on principles such as professional independence, impartiality, relevance, confidentiality of individual data and easy access to official statistics; they cover methodology, classifications and standards for production.

Information concerning the current statistical legislation on short-term business statistics can be found here.

Eurostat has the responsibility to ensure that statistical production of the Western Balkans and Türkiye complies with the EU acquis in the field of statistics. To do so, Eurostat supports the national statistical offices and other producers of official statistics through a range of initiatives, such as pilot surveys, training courses, traineeships, study visits, workshops and seminars, and participation in meetings within the European Statistical System (ESS). The ultimate goal is the provision of harmonised, high-quality data that conforms to European and international standards.

Additional information on statistical cooperation with the Western Balkans and Türkiye is provided here.

Direct access to

Database

Short-term business statistics (sts), see:

Industry (sts_ind)

Production in industry (sts_ind_prod)

Producer prices in industry (sts_ind_pric)

Construction, building and civil engineering (sts_cons)

Production in construction (sts_cons_pro)

Construction cost (or producer prices), new residential buildings (sts_cons_pri)

Trade and services (sts_ts)

Wholesale and retail trade (NACE G) (sts_wrt)

Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (Text with EEA relevance)
Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (Text with EEA relevance)