Methodology
Eurostat’s population projections result from the application of a set of assumptions on future developments of fertility, mortality, and migration to the official statistics provided by the national statistical institutes (NSIs) in the context of the annual data collections in the field of demographic statistics.
The projections should not be considered as forecasts. They show what would happen to the resulting population structure if the set of assumptions are held constant over the entire time horizon under consideration. In other words, the projections are ‘what-if’ scenarios that track population developments under a set of assumptions.
As these projections are made over a relatively long time horizon, statements about the likely future developments for the EU’s population should be taken with caution. They should be interpreted as only one of a range of possible demographic developments.
Available data
Underlying assumptions are presented as yearly time series from the year 2023 to 2100 by age and sex. These datasets refer to:
- age-specific fertility rates
- age-specific mortality rates by sex
- net migration by age and sex
For all types of projections, additional data are available on:
- projected totals for live births and deaths
- sizes of age groups
- age dependency ratios (including old-age dependency ratio)
- median age of the population