The OSKA system was established as a measure to contribute to the objectives of the Estonia 2020 Strategy (to enhance employment and productivity). The aim of OSKA is to contribute to the reduction of skills mismatch, to inform various stakeholders on skills needs and to facilitate cooperation between the education system and labour market. These objectives are in line with European guidelines, especially Guideline 6 Enhancing labour supply, skills and competences, and Guideline 7 Enhancing the functioning of labour markets.

As a result of the economic crisis, employment fell by 13.4% between 2008 and 2010 for 15-74 year olds (2). By 2017, however, total employment surpassed pre-crisis levels standing at 659 000 (compared to 656 000) (3) while in quarter III of 2019 unemployment reached the lowest level experienced in the previous 25 years at 3.9% for 15-74 year olds(4) (5).

Estonia has one of the highest employment rates in Europe (79.5% for 20-64 in 2018) despite having a declining working age population. The employment rate in the age group 50-74 is the highest in the EU (58.1% in 2018), especially for women (6). The share of older workers (age 65-74) in the work force is the highest in the EU as well (7). Forecasts forsee a further minor increase in employment due to the rising pension age (8), an increase in the healthy life years and the ongoing work ability reform (9).

As changes in sectors are expected to be rather small, overall skills demand is driven mainly by replacement demand. Future growth is forecast in programming, professional, scientific and technical activities, health and social work activities. The decrease in working age population along with a rapid increase in salaries, caused by a scarcity of labour, forces a reassessment of how the work force is used. These factors have also led to positive net migration during the last few years. Nevertheless, both consistently rising wages as well as climate policy may lead to larger structural changes in the economy during the coming decade.

(2) The information in this box has been largely excerpted from the following publication: EU (2016a), Peer Country Comments Paper, Estonia Skills Forecasting in Estonia: A shift towards policy driven approach, as part of the Peer Review on ‘Methods for forecasting skills needs for the economy' Dublin (Ireland), 13-14 June 2016.

(3) Eurostat database, lfsi_emp_a, author’s calculations.

(4) CEDEFOP (2015), Estonia: skills forecasts up to 2025. 

(5) Estonian Statistical Office database, TT461, Eurostat database, tesem010.

(6) Soosaar, O. & Urke, K. (2018), Tööturu ülevaade 1, Eesti Pank, Tallinn.

(7) Eurostat database, lfsa_egan.

(8) Lambing, M. (2017) Tööjõuvajaduse ja –pakkumise prognoos aastani 2024, Majandus - ja Kommunikatsiooniministeerium, 

(9) Unt, M. (2018) PR on ´Way to work – strengthening the links between active labour market policy measures and social support services´ Estonian country report. DG EMPL. 

Estonian entrepreneurs indicate a lack of a qualified labour is the main factor hindering economic growth. It is caused by both an aging society and a decline in the working age population as well as changing skills needs and skills mismatch due to rapid changes in the society over the last 30 years.

The mismatch between labour needs, the skills available in the work force and skills taught at the vocational/college/university level led to the need to comprehensively and systematically monitor, analyse and forecast skills needs currently and in the future, and to actively engage all sides of the labour market (10). The introduction of the OSKA skills forecasting system seeks to improve the labour market relevance of education and training, to promote bridges between the worlds of education and work and to enhance lifelong learning (11).

In Estonia the overall labour demand and supply forecast was based on a methodology used since 2005 (12). The data tables and short explanation of the overall forecast were published annually by Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications (MEAC). In the forecast, the labour demand was assessed in quantitative terms, not in terms of skills, which might be needed in the future (13).

In 2014 the Estonian government launched OSKA, a more detailed system of labour market monitoring and future skills forecasting designed to analyse and forecast labour market needs (by sector (14)), both quantitatively (how many employees are needed in key occupations by sector) and qualitatively (expected competency profiles in key occupations), and recommend necessary adjustments in the education and training offer (15).

The outcome is five sectoral reports a year as well as a general report updated annually based on the following sources:

1. statistical data,
2. surveys (European Health Interview Survey (EHIS), the Labour Force Survey, the Population and Housing Census 2011, sectoral surveys, EKOMAR, etc.),
3. expert interviews,
4. sectoral experts panel seminars,
5. desktop research on future trends, strategies, etc.

By the end of 2019, 21 economic sectors had been examined (16).

The Estonian approach to skills forecasting aims to support policy making with regard to assessing demand for education and training provision, labour market policy and career guidance. The OSKA skills forecasting system analyses the needs of the labour market and skills necessary for Estonia’s economic development over the next 10 years (17). It produces projections of the need for labour force and skills in all fields of the Estonian economy and compares these to the education and training offer by higher education institutions, VET institutions and continuing education courses (18).

(17) See https://oska.kutsekoda.ee/en/

(18) See OSKA study “Estonian Labour Market Today and Tomorrow 2018” 

In April 2015 the EQA began monitoring the labour market as well as trends affecting future skills needs and making forecasts as well as implementing the OSKA system for the coordination and development of skills (19). OSKA’s applied studies on sectoral needs for labour and skills are unique. They use a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, and analyse professional qualifications across all levels of education (20). Both statistical data and information from interviews with sectoral experts and group discussions are used.

• Every year, labour and skills needs are examined in five economic sectors. The choice of sectors as well as study reports are approved by the OSKA Coordination Council. Recommendations for training requirements are then prepared.
• As part of this annual process, OSKA sectoral expert groups assess future trends, Estonia’s strategic development objectives and their impact on the development of the sector, the number of people and the range of skills the sector requires, and the profile of the available training offer, whether or not and how it needs to be altered (21).
• Quantitative analysis is based on the data from relevant registers and surveys (including EHIS, the Labour Force Survey, the Population and Housing Census 2011, sectoral surveys, EKOMAR etc.) as well as on forecasts of labour requirements prepared by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications (MEAC).
• Qualitative information from interviews with sectoral experts and group discussions about employment skills and qualifications is also collected. These interviews examine future economic trends and the resulting changes in the needs of workers, skills, education and training in each sector, and provide information towards improving qualifications. Sectoral expert panels also assess labour requirements quantitatively as well as training capacities in key professions.
• OSKA publishes an annual general report on changes in labour requirements, labour market developments and the trends influencing them over the next 10 years.
• All economic sectors are surveyed and analysed once every five or six years. In the intervening period, the relevant sectoral expert panels monitor implementation of the recommendations made on the basis of conclusions of the study.

(19) See https://andras.ee/digituur25/en/portfolio_page/14-oska-en/

(20) The following information is excerpted from OSKA Methodology

(21) See https://andras.ee/digituur25/en/portfolio_page/14-oska-en/

• In cooperation with MEAC, the OSKA annual report is produced capturing the trends in the economy and in the labour market by sector, and also outlines the state of play in terms of skills demand and supply. Since 2018 the Estonian Unemployment Insurance Fund is also involved in compiling the report, commenting on the short-term labour demand and supply.
• Between 2015 and 2019, 21 detailed sectoral studies have been conducted (22). The plan is to include all the fields of economic activity in the surveys by 2021 (23).
• Results of the analysis provided by OSKA are available online as well as in printed form and are used in curriculum development, career counselling, and planning of state-funded education.
• In addition to the OSKA webpage and study reports, OSKA intelligence is published in an easily understandable manner in a new education portal since May 2019.
• The EQA has established very close links to policy-making and the implementation of recommendations in the educational system and active labour market policy based on the future skill forecasts. The key users are the Ministry of Education and Research who mediates the negotiations with schools and the Estonian Unemployment Insurance Fund (EUIF) in planning training and allocating the funds and running the national career guidance network. EUIF has built several labour market policy measures specifically on OSKA intelligence. Also, Ministry of Social Affairs and MEAC have used OSKA intelligence in planning labour and economic policy measures (24).

(22) For a list of these 21 sectors, see EU (2018). 

(23) See https://andras.ee/digituur25/en/portfolio_page/14-oska-en/

(24) EU (2018).