Statistics Explained

Urban-rural Europe - demographic developments in cities


Data extracted: October 2022.

Planned article update: December 2024.

Highlights


Tokyo in Japan was the largest urban agglomeration in the world in 2020 (37.4 million inhabitants); the largest agglomeration in the EU was Paris (France; 11.0 million), at 29th place in the world rankings.

In 2021, the lowest median age among capital cities in the EU was 35.0 years in Bruxelles/Brussel; this was 6.8 years lower than the national average for Belgium. There were also relatively large gaps recorded in Paris and Helsinki – their median ages were 6.1 years and 5.3 years lower than their respective national averages.

Patterns of urban development have taken a variety of forms: despite the gradual blurring of the demarcation between urban and rural regions – due to a growing number of suburban and peri-urban developments – cities accounted for 3.7 % of the EU’s total area in 2018, while their share of its population was considerably higher (39.5 %). The close proximity of people, businesses and services provides opportunities for cities to make more efficient use of resources, offering a broad range of health, educational, and other social and cultural services, as well as transport, communication, energy and sanitation networks at a relatively low cost.

Source: Eurostat (met_pjanaggr3)

Much has been written about Europe’s ageing population crisis. While this pattern is observed across most of the EU, there are contrasting developments in some urban areas (where population growth remains relatively rapid and where young people account for a relatively high share of the total number of inhabitants). This pattern may be linked to young people moving to urban areas for education and/or work, while in contrast older people are more likely to leave big cities and retire to the countryside or smaller cities and towns.

This article analyses demographic developments across the cities of the EU; it forms part of Eurostat’s online publication Urban Europe. Note that complementary information is available in an article on demographic developments in rural regions and areas.

Full article

Population structure

Urbanisation is a global phenomenon, accounting for an increasing share of economic growth, land area and the total number of inhabitants; nowadays, this process is particularly evident in emerging economies and the developing world. According to the United Nations Population Division, Tokyo in Japan was the largest urban agglomeration in the world in 2020, with 37.4 million inhabitants; see Figure 1. The next largest agglomerations were Delhi (India; 30.3 million) and Shanghai (China; 27.1 million). Focusing on the EU, the largest agglomeration – at 29th place in the world rankings – was Paris (France; 11.0 million).

In the coming years, the populations of most urban agglomerations in emerging economies and the developing world are projected to continue growing at a rapid pace. For example, Delhi will likely become the largest agglomeration in the world, with a projected population of 43.3 million inhabitants by 2035. Alongside Delhi, the latest projections suggest that between 2020 and 2035 there will be increases of more than 10.0 million inhabitants in the agglomerations of Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo), Dhaka (Bangladesh) and Lagos (Nigeria). By contrast, the populations of urban agglomerations in most developed world economies are projected to grow at a much slower pace and in some cases their populations are projected to fall; this is the case, for example, in the two largest urban agglomerations of Japan (Tokyo and the Kinki Major Metropolitan Area – the latter includes the cities of Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe).

Figure 1: Largest urban agglomerations in the world, 2005, 2020 and 2035
(million inhabitants)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018); World Urbanization Prospects: the 2018 revision (online edition)

Metropolitan regions are urban agglomerations composed of NUTS level 3 regions (or groups thereof) where at least half of the population lives inside a functional urban area composed of at least 250 000 inhabitants.

Figure 2 shows the number of people living in capital city metropolitan regions as a share of national populations. As of 1 January 2021, close to half of the population in the Baltic Member States of Latvia and Estonia resided in the metropolitan regions of Rīga and Tallinn, with more than two fifths (43.2 %) of the Irish population living in the metropolitan region of Dublin. Denmark, Greece, Austria, Hungary, Croatia and Finland were also characterised by relatively high shares, as 30.8–35.4 % of their national populations were living in their respective capital city metropolitan regions; most of these relatively small Member States are examples of monocentric demography developed around a principal urban pole. By contrast, a much lower share of population was living in the capital city of the EU’s most populous Member State: 6.4 % of the German population was living in the capital city metropolitan region of Berlin. Italy and Poland were the only other Member States where less than 10 % of the national population resided in the capital city metropolitan region. Germany, Italy and Poland are examples of polycentric economies that are developed around multiple urban poles (where the capital city does not dominate). Note that another article within Urban Europe provides complementary information on economic developments in capital cities and metropolitan regions.

Figure 2: Population in capital city metropolitan region, 1 January 2015 and 1 January 2021
(% share of national population)
Source: Eurostat (met_pjangrp3)

Although the EU is characterised by demographic ageing, the population structure of some of its main cities is relatively young; this may be explained by young people being drawn to urban areas by what they offer in terms of education, jobs, social experiences, culture, sports and leisure. Figure 3 shows the age structure of capital city metropolitan regions as of 1 January 2021: Dublin (Ireland) and Paris (France) were the only capitals where more than one quarter of the population was aged less than 20 years. By contrast, there were nine capital cities in the EU where people under the age of 20 accounted for less than one fifth of the total population; the lowest shares were observed in Roma (Italy; 17.9 %) and Valetta (Malta; 17.6 %).

As noted above, many of the EU Member States are characterised by a monocentric pattern of demographic development, whereby their capital city dominates the national economy. For example, the metropolitan region of Paris – the largest city in the EU – had 12.3 million people as of 1 January 2021, which was 3.9 times as high as the number of people living in Marseille (France’s second city). A similar pattern was observed in Hungary and Austria, as the number of people living in their capitals of Budapest and Wien was 4.8 and 3.6 times as high as in their second cities of Miskolc and Linz, respectively.

Figure 3: Population in capital city metropolitan regions by age, 1 January 2021
(%)
Source: Eurostat (met_pjangrp3)

In EU Member States characterised by a more polycentric pattern of demographic development, there was often little difference between the capital and second city in terms of their population. The population of the metropolitan region of Ruhrgebiet in the west of Germany was 0.2 million lower than the population of Berlin on 1 January 2021, while in Italy and Slovakia the number of people living in Milano and Košice was 0.1 million higher than for Roma and Bratislava, respectively.

Figure 4: Population in capital city and second city metropolitan regions, 1 January 2021
(million people)
Source: Eurostat (met_pjangrp3)

There were nine metropolitan regions across the EU where at least one quarter of the total population as of 1 January 2021 was aged less than 20 years; all nine were located in either Ireland or France. The highest shares (26.0 %) were observed in the Irish regions of Dublin and Cork, closely followed by Lille/Dunkerque/Valenciennes (25.8 %) and Paris (25.7 %); five more metropolitan regions in France – Lyon, Orléans, Grenoble, Nantes and Rennes – had shares within the range of 25.0–25.2 %.

On 1 January 2021, almost two thirds of the total number of people living in the metropolitan regions of Las Palmas and Santa Cruz de Tenerife (both part of Canarias in Spain) were of working age, defined here as people aged 20–64 years. Working-age people accounted for a slightly lower share of the total population in Luxembourg (64.2 %), Timişoara (Romania; 64.1 %), Valletta (Malta; 63.8 %) and Palma de Mallorca (Spain; 63.8 %).

An influx of young people can rejuvenate the population structure of dynamic cities. This pattern can be compounded if older people (defined here as those aged 65 years or over) leave city centres and retire to the countryside, smaller cities or towns, or residential suburbs. However, there are also cities, frequently characterised as being ‘left behind’ – many of which are in former industrial heartlands or towards the periphery of the EU – which are inhabited by relatively few young people. While the number of people living in these cities is falling, they often report a relatively high and increasing share of older people. On 1 January 2021, the highest shares of older people living in metropolitan regions of the EU were recorded in eastern Germany – Görlitz and Zwickau, where those aged 65 years or over accounted for 30.4 % and 29.9 %, respectively, of the total population – and in the northern Italian region of Genova (28.9 %).

Figure 5: Population in selected metropolitan regions, 1 January 2021
(% share of total population)
Source: Eurostat (met_pjangrp3)

Population change

There are two parameters which affect population dynamics: on the one hand, natural population change (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths) and, on the other, net migration (the difference between the number of people who move into and out of a territory). As natural population growth within the EU has generally stagnated and turned to decline in some cases, the relative impact of net migration on overall population change has become greater. Note that within this context, migratory flows may concern internal movements of people within the same EU Member State (often from rural areas to cities), as well as migrant flows from/to other EU Member States and non-member countries.

Figure 6 shows the change in population numbers across the metropolitan regions of each EU Member State between 2015 and 2020. The highest overall increase was recorded in Germany, where the total number of people living in metropolitan regions rose by 1.7 million; there were also relatively large gains in Spain and France (both up by almost a million). By contrast, there was a fall in the total number of people living in the metropolitan regions of seven Member States; the largest decreases were observed in Greece and Italy.

The information presented in Figure 6 has been decomposed into the two parameters that affect population dynamics. It is interesting to note that the overall increase in the total number of people living in metropolitan regions of Germany, Spain, Poland, Portugal and Lithuania was entirely due to net migration exceeding negative natural change. On the other hand, the rising number of people living in metropolitan regions of France and Ireland could largely be attributed to positive natural population change (more births than deaths).

Figure 6: Population change in metropolitan regions, 2015–2020
(1 000)
Source: Eurostat (met_gind3)

The crude rate of population change measures the change in population relative to the average population; it is expressed as a ratio per 1 000 people. In relative terms, the fastest population growth rates between 2015 and 2020 for metropolitan regions were recorded in Ireland and Sweden, as their number of people rose, on average, 7.4 and 7.2 per 1 000 people; there were also relatively high increases in Estonia, Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Finland. All seven of these EU Member States with the highest crude rates of population change were characterised by positive rates for both net migration and natural change.

Figure 7: Crude rate of population change in metropolitan regions, 2015–2020
(‰)
Source: Eurostat (met_gind3)

Figure 8 provides additional information on crude rates of population change in metropolitan regions for the period 2015–2020 (with separate analyses for total population change, natural change and net migration – use the dropdown list to change the indicator).

  • The crude rate of total population change increased by at least 10.0 per 1 000 people in the capital city metropolitan regions of Ireland, Sweden, Slovakia, Estonia, Finland, Austria and Czechia.
  • Paris (France; 8.0 per 1 000 people) and Dublin (Ireland; 7.5 per 1 000 people) had the highest crude rates of natural population change across capital city metropolitan regions.
  • Tallinn (Estonia) and Bratislava (Slovakia) were the only capital city metropolitan regions where the crude rate of net migration rose by at least 10.0 per 1 000 people.
  • Athina (Greece) and Rīga (Latvia) were the only capital city metropolitan regions to record crude rates of total population change that were lower than their national averages.
  • Crude rates of natural population change for capital city metropolitan regions were consistently higher than those for non-metropolitan regions and their national averages.
  • Bruxelles/Brussel (Belgium), Athina and Paris were the only capital city metropolitan regions to record crude rates of net migration that were lower than their national averages.

Figure 8: Crude rates of population change in metropolitan regions, 2015–2020
(‰)
Source: Eurostat (met_gind3)


Cities and their commuting zones

Figure 9: Largest functional urban areas in the EU, 1 January 2021
(million inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat (urb_cpop1) and (urb_lpop1)

A functional urban area consists of a city and its commuting zone. Functional urban areas therefore usually comprise a relatively densely populated city centre and a less densely populated suburban area; people living in the suburban areas often commute to work in the city centre.

On 1 January 2019, the French capital city of Paris had had the largest functional urban area in the EU (13.1 million inhabitants); it comprised 10.3 million people living in the city and 2.8 million in the surrounding commuting zone. On 1 January 2021, the next largest functional urban areas were located in some of the most populous EU Member States: Madrid and Barcelona in Spain (data for 1 January 2020); Berlin and Hamburg in Germany; Milano and Roma in Italy. Looking in more detail at the seven largest functional urban areas in the EU, they all reported a higher number of inhabitants living in their city centres than in their surrounding commuting zones.

By contrast, in 4 of the 20 largest functional urban areas of the EU the population of the commuting zone was greater than the population of the city. On 1 January 2021, the functional urban area of Stuttgart in Germany was composed of 630 000 people living in the city compared with 1.9 million inhabitants in the commuting zone; as such there were 3.0 times as many potential commuters as there were city dwellers. A similar pattern, although less pronounced, was observed in Frankfurt am Main (also Germany), where the population of the commuting zone was 2.5 times as high as that of the city, Amsterdam (the Netherlands; 1.8 times as high) and Bruxelles/Brussel–Leuven (Belgium; 1.3 times as high).

The median age provides an alternative means of analysing the age distribution of a population. Demographic changes – such as lower fertility rates and increased life expectancy – have resulted in median ages rising.

  • In 2021, the median age of the EU population was 44.1 years.
  • The median age of EU Member States ranged from a low of 38.0 years in Cyprus up to a high of 47.6 years in Italy.
  • Among those cities for which data are available, the lowest median age was recorded in Cayenne (the capital city of French Guiana), at 29.0 years.
  • The highest median age was recorded in Dessau-Roßlau (eastern Germany), at 53.8 years.
Figure 10: Median age in selected cities, 2021
(years)
Source: Eurostat (urb_cpopstr) and (demo_pjanind)

Some cities are vibrant, dynamic hubs that are particularly appealing to young people; in these cities, the median age tends to be lower. However, in some of the most attractive cities, younger population cohorts can be priced out of the housing market and forced to look for more affordable options in the suburbs or neighbouring regions (commuting into the city centre to benefit from the education, jobs, social experiences, culture, sports and leisure on offer). In 2021, the lowest median age among capital cities in the EU was 35.0 years in Bruxelles/Brussel; this was 6.8 years lower than the national average for Belgium. There were also relatively large gaps recorded in Paris and Helsinki, as their median ages were 6.1 years and 5.3 years lower than their respective national averages. Bratislava (Slovakia) was the only capital city in the EU (among the 13 for which data are available) to record a median age that was above its national average, although the difference was small, at 0.1 years.


Mean monthly earnings of employees in Portugal

A recent report produced by Statistics Portugal analysed differences in average earnings across and within functional urban areas. Employees in Portugal averaged monthly earnings of €1 206 in 2019. A much higher figure was recorded in the city of Lisboa (€1 547), while monthly earnings in the cities of Porto, Vila Franca de Xira, Aveiro, Sintra and Setúbal were also above the national average.

Mean monthly earnings in Portuguese cities (€1 364) were slightly higher than in functional urban areas (€1 324), while average earnings in commuting zones were lower (€1 120). The distribution of earnings across functional urban areas was skewed, insofar as Lisboa (€1 462 per month) was alone in recording a level above the average for all functional urban areas. Note also that earnings in the functional urban areas of Viseu (€1 024) and Guimarães (€958) were below the average for non-functional urban areas (€1 027).

Figure B1: Mean monthly earnings of employees in selected cities and functional urban areas of Portugal, 2019
(€)
Source: Statistics Portugal, Final Report on providing new indicators of employment by place of work at LAU2 level

Figure 11 shows the population structure for three of the capital cities in the EU: Berlin, Madrid and Roma. On 1 January 2020, population ageing was most apparent in the Italian capital, with people aged 50–59 years accounting for the highest share of the total population and progressively smaller shares being observed for younger age cohorts. A similar pattern existed in Madrid, although the largest age group was those aged 40–49 years.

The population pyramid for Berlin was somewhat different insofar as there were two age groups that accounted for a relatively high share of the total population (people aged 30–39 years and people aged 50–59 years); in recent years, there has been rapid growth in the number of relatively young people arriving in the German capital, including from outside Germany. It is also interesting to note that Berlin was the only capital (among the three for which data are shown) to report that children aged less than 10 years accounted for a higher share of the total population than those aged 10–19 years; this suggests that the fertility rate in Berlin, although relatively low, was rising – this pattern was likely driven by the increasing number of younger people living in the city.

Figure 11: Population pyramids, selected functional urban areas and cities, 1 January 2020
(% share of total population)
Source: Eurostat (urb_cpop1) and (urb_lpop1)


Commuters working in Luxembourg by place of residence

Luxembourg has a very high number of international commuters crossing its borders every day, principally from Belgium, Germany and France. Note that due to low sample sizes, data are confidential for some (neighbouring) regions; in total, there were 60 NUTS level 3 regions from which people commuted to work in Luxembourg in 2021. Basic guidelines within the labour force survey are designed to avoid the disclosure of confidential information or the publication of results which are statistically unreliable. As a result, the information presented below shows data for nine of the principal regions from which people commute to work in Luxembourg.

Cross-border commuters working in Luxembourg accounted for almost half (46.3 %) of its paid workforce (employees) in 2021. A majority of Luxembourg’s cross-border commuters lived in France, principally in the regions of Moselle, Meurthe-et-Moselle and Meuse.

Map B1: Commuters working in Luxembourg by place of residence, 2021
(commuters)
Source: Eurostat (Labour force survey)

The old-age dependency ratio is calculated as the ratio of the number of older people at an age when they are generally economically inactive (defined here as those aged 65 years or over) compared with the number of people of working age (defined here as those aged 20–64 years). In 2021, the EU’s old-age dependency ratio was 35.4 %; as such, within the EU population there were 2.8 people of working age for every older person.

Map 1 shows the old-age dependency ratio for functional urban areas. In 2021, some of the highest ratios were recorded across eastern Germany, with a peak of 59.9 % in Dessau-Roßlau:

  • there were five more functional urban areas in Germany where the old-age dependency ratio was greater than 50.0 % (in other words, where there were fewer than 2.0 people of working age for every older person) – Plauen, Görlitz, Zwickau, Gera and Chemnitz;
  • there were three functional urban areas on the coast of northern Italy where the old-age dependency ratio was greater than 50.0 % – Savona, Genova and Trieste;
  • there was a single functional urban area in Belgium where the old-age dependency ratio was greater than 50.0 % – Oostende on the North Sea coast;
  • the lowest old-age dependency ratios among functional urban areas of the EU were recorded in Slatina, Bistrița and Botoșani (all in Romania), as well as the Spanish island areas of Arrecife (on Lanzarote) and Eivissa (Ibiza).

Map 1: Old-age dependency ratio, selected functional urban areas, 2021
(%)
Note: based on the ratio of the population aged ≥ 65 years / population aged 20-64 years, expressed in percentage terms. Earlier reference years (2018–2020) have been used for some functional urban areas (too many to document). Based on available data.
Source: Eurostat (urb_lpopstr), (urb_lpop1) and (demo_pjanind)

Population projections

Population projections are ‘what-if’ scenarios that aim to show hypothetical developments based on a set of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration. They can be used by the public, statisticians and policymakers, contributing to an informed debate on demographic and societal changes, for example as part of an assessment of regional policies, the ageing population, or the long-term sustainability of public finances. The latest projections (EUROPOP2019) were produced at national and subnational levels for all of the EU Member States and EFTA countries, for the period through to 2100.

According to the latest projections, the population of the EU will fall during the coming three decades and is projected to stand at 441.2 million inhabitants by 1 January 2050. Although the overall population is projected to fall, Figure 12 indicates there will likely be a mixed pattern of developments for different regions of the EU.

  • The number of inhabitants living in capital city metropolitan regions is projected to continue rising each year throughout the period under consideration.
  • Projections suggest that the number of inhabitants living in metropolitan regions (other than the capital) will also grow each year through to 2040, after which there will be a modest decline.
  • By contrast, the number of inhabitants living in non-metropolitan regions is projected to fall each year, with the rate at which their population declines accelerating from 2035 onwards.
Figure 12: Projected annual population change in metropolitan regions, EU, 2021–2050
(%)
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rp3) and (proj_19np)

For the period 1 January 2021 to 1 January 2050, the latest population projections suggest that the number of people residing in capital city metropolitan regions of the EU will increase 6.8 % overall. A modest increase is projected for the number of people living in metropolitan regions other than the capital (up 0.9 %), while the number living in non-metropolitan regions is projected to fall 7.4 %. Among the EU Member States, there are some much larger fluctuations projected.

  • The number of inhabitants living in the capital city metropolitan regions of Malta, Ireland, Sweden and Luxembourg is projected to increase by more than 20.0 %.
  • The only Member States where the number of inhabitants living in the capital city metropolitan region is projected to fall are Greece, Latvia, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Lithuania.
  • Athina – the Greek capital city metropolitan region – is the only capital where the number of inhabitants is projected to change by less than the national average.
  • The number of inhabitants living in metropolitan regions (other than the capital) is projected to increase by more than 20.0 % in Sweden and Ireland.
  • The number of inhabitants living in metropolitan regions (other than the capital) is projected to fall in 13 out of 22 Member States for which data are available; the largest falls – more than 10.0 % – are projected for Bulgaria, Greece, Portugal, Romania and Lithuania.
Table 1: Projected population change in metropolitan regions, 2021–2050
(%)
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rp3) and (proj_19np)

The final analysis in this section focuses on projected population changes for individual metropolitan regions. Between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2050, the population is projected to increase in 122 out of 241 EU metropolitan regions for which data are available. The highest absolute increases are projected for the metropolitan regions of Madrid, Paris and Barcelona, where the number of inhabitants is projected to rise 1.3 million, 1.1 million and 910 000 respectively; see Figure 13. There are also relatively large increases projected for: the capital city metropolitan regions of Stockholm (Sweden) and Dublin (Ireland) – up by more than half a million persons; Bordeaux, Toulouse and Lyon (all in France), Göteborg and Malmö (both in Sweden), and Praha (the capital city region of Czechia), where the number of inhabitants is projected to rise by more than 300 000 persons.

By contrast, between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2050, the populations of several well-known metropolitan regions across the EU are projected to fall: Bucureşti (Romania), Porto (Portugal) and Napoli (Italy) are projected to see their populations reduced by more than 200 000 inhabitants each, with larger reductions in Katowice (Poland; down 450 000 inhabitants) and Athina (Greece; down 643 000 inhabitants).

In relative terms, there were five metropolitan regions in the EU, where the latest population projections suggest the total number of inhabitants will increase by more than 25.0 % between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2050: Gießen (central Germany), Valletta (Malta), Palma de Mallorca (Spain), Toulouse and Dublin. By contrast, there were two regions where the number of inhabitants was projected to fall by more than 25.0 %, Ploieşti and Galați (both in Romania).

Figure 13: Projected population change in selected metropolitan regions, 2021–2050
(1 000 and %)
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rp3) and (proj_19np)

Source data for tables and graphs

Context

There are various pressing challenges in the EU, including environmental degradation and climate change, demographic transition, migration, the cost of living and social inequalities. Cities are on the frontline of delivering solutions to many of these issues, as they remain poles of attraction, generally offering a broad range of education and employment opportunities, as well as a range of services to their surrounding regions. The various dimensions of urban life – economic, social, cultural and environmental – are closely inter-related. Successful urban developments are often based on coordinated/integrated approaches that seek to balance these dimensions through a range of policy measures such as urban renewal, increasing education opportunities, preventing crime, encouraging social inclusion or environmental protection.

EU policymakers have sought to follow a principle of multi-level governance, working together with cities and regional stakeholders, in order to promote sustainable and resilient growth in urban areas. At the end of May 2016, a meeting of ministers responsible for urban matters was held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. It reached an agreement on an Urban Agenda for the EU, as established by the Pact of Amsterdam. This agreement was a key milestone in the development of an EU-wide approach to urban challenges and established the development of 12 priority areas for partnerships between EU institutions, EU Member States, cities and other stakeholders. The themes cover: the inclusion of migrants and refugees; air quality; urban poverty; housing; the circular economy; jobs and skills in the local economy; climate adaptation; energy transition; sustainable land use; urban mobility; digital transition; public procurement.

The Urban Agenda for the EU has subsequently enabled cities, Member States, the European Commission and other key stakeholders to come together to tackle pressing urban matters and deliver specific outputs for the benefit of the population. Through its contribution to the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Urban Agenda is also outward-looking and connected to global challenges.

EU policymakers recognise the important role that may be played by the urban dimension of regional policy, in particular measures designed to mitigate poverty and social exclusion. In doing so, the urban dimension of cohesion policy has been strengthened during the period 2021–2027, with a minimum of 6 % of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) dedicated to sustainable urban development strategies, alongside a new European Urban Initiative (EUI) – launched in the third quarter of 2022 – that has the goal of supporting cities to innovate, access knowledge and understand policy.

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