Excess mortality statistics
Data extracted on 13 May 2024
Planned article update: 13 June 2024
Highlights
In March 2024, there was no excess mortality in the EU as a whole and the indicator fell to -6.5 %.
In March 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU. The excess mortality rate was negative in 21 Member States.
In March 2024, the highest excess mortality rates were in Ireland (11.0 %), the Netherlands (7.7 %) and Portugal (3.5 %).
In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that which was observed in the baseline period.
The excess mortality indicator takes the number of people who died from any cause in a given period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred in each month during the period 2016-2019. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Monitor, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It provides a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause.
The excess mortality indicator is based on a data collection for which National Statistical Institutes from the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) have transmitted weekly deaths data to Eurostat on a voluntary basis since April 2020. The weekly deaths dataset that Eurostat publishes regularly is used to compute the monthly excess mortality indicator by mapping the deaths of each week to a full month. The data covered in this analysis include all deaths that have occurred since January 2020.
Full article
Recent data on excess mortality in the EU
In March 2024, there were no excess deaths in the EU as a whole and the indicator fell below the baseline to -6.5 %. In comparison, the indicator stood at -1.1 % in February 2024 (Figure 1). According to the weekly death statistics, during March 2024, approximately 27 600 less deaths were recorded compared with the average number of deaths for the same period in 2016-2019 (baseline). For comparison, in May 2023, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality stood at 3.6 % (11 831 additional deaths). The indicator was 7.9 % in May 2022 (25 989 additional deaths), 10.7 % in May 2021 (33 364 additional deaths) and 3.1 % in May 2020 (9 742 additional deaths). In March 2023, the excess mortality rate in the EU was 1.4 %.
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
In March 2024, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU (Figure 2). The excess mortality rate was negative in 21 Member States: the lowest rates were recorded in Romania (-20.9 %), Slovakia (-17.1 %), Bulgaria (-14.6 %), Latvia (-14.2 %) and Czechia (-12.0 %). Five countries registered excess deaths: the highest rates were in Ireland (11.0 %), the Netherlands (7.7 %) and Portugal (3.5 %). These were followed by Luxembourg (2.9 %) and Spain (1.3 %). In Finland, the indicator was close to zero. For comparison, according to Table 1, 12 Member States recorded excess deaths in February 2024, with the highest rates observed in the Netherlands (12.5 %), Ireland (9.4 %), Austria (9.0 %), Slovenia (7.1 %) and Finland (4.8 %). Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this is the third time the excess mortality indicator in the EU has fallen below zero and the second month in a row.
Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU
During the weeks of March 2024, there were approximately 27 600 less deaths in the EU compared with the 2016-2019 baseline. By contrast, during the weeks of January 2024, EU countries recorded around 15 000 additional deaths. This represents a significant decrease in weekly deaths between January 2024 and March 2024. The lowest number of additional deaths was recorded in the first week of March 2024, with -8 038 deaths below the 2016-2016 baseline. Compared with the previous year, in March 2023, there were 5 876 additional deaths in the EU compared with the 2016-2019 baseline.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
During the first week of March 2024 (week 10), the Netherlands recorded the highest number of additional deaths (185). Spain and Portugal followed with 159 and 86 additional deaths respectively.
In the second week of March 2024 (week 11), Spain had the highest number of additional deaths among the EU countries with 278 deaths, followed by the Netherlands with 189 and Portugal 182 additional deaths.
During the third week of March 2024 (week 12), Spain, the Netherlands and Portugal continued to have the highest numbers with Spain registering 363, the Netherlands 289 and Portugal 186 additional deaths.
In the last week of March 2024 (week 13), the Netherlands registered the highest number of additional deaths (448), followed by Ireland with 76 additional deaths.
Table 2 below shows the number of deaths in EU countries for the entire March 2024 as well as, where data are available, the most affected regions of the countries.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
In the tool below, you may select the country you would like to analyse.
Further releases
Data for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision. This article and the related datasets are updated monthly.
Source data for tables and figures
Data sources
The excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that no additional deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU Member States on a voluntary basis. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the purpose of the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data from 2021 remain provisional and subject to revision with the next releases.
Thirty-one countries provide weekly mortality data: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Data received from candidate and neighbouring countries are not present in this article.
Data from Ireland were not included in the first phase of the excess mortality release: official timely data were not available because deaths in Ireland can be registered up to three months after the date of death. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Ireland began to explore experimental ways of obtaining up-to-date mortality data. At the end of April 2021, the CSO started publishing a time series from October 2019 until the most recent weeks, using death notices (see the CSO website). For the purpose of this release, Eurostat is comparing the new 2020-2021 web-scraped series with a 2016-2019 baseline built using official data. The CSO is periodically assessing the quality of these data.
Data for Malta for the weeks 12-13 (March 2024) are not available. The EU aggregate and the excess mortality indicator for Malta for March 2024 was produced based on provisional data and the average of the latest available weeks for Malta.
Data for several countries were recalculated from 2021 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted the by National Statistical Institutes in March 2023. For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].
Data for Romania for January 2024 are not available. The EU aggregate for January 2024 was produced based on provisional data and the average of the latest two available months for Romania.
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death. However, it provides additional insight into the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on European societies. It should be stressed again that while a substantial increase in excess mortality largely coincided with a COVID-19 outbreak in each country, the indicator did not make a distinction between causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. During the COVID-19 pandemic, statistics on excess deaths provided information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the pandemic, thereby covering not only deaths that were directly attributed to the virus but also those indirectly related to it. In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captured COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported, as well as deaths from other causes that might have been attributed to the overall crisis situation. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due, for example, to restrictions on commuting or travel during the lockdown periods.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Recovery Dashboard. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a more stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month, no later than 45 days after the end of the reference period (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes). Eurostat started to publish the excess mortality indicator in relation to the COVID-19 public health emergency announced by the WHO. While the global COVID-19 crisis is over, the indicator remains relevant and is available to capture possible future factors affecting mortality in the EU.
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See also
Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
Dedicated section
Methodology
- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)
Visualisations
- Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
- Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time