At the end of the COP28 UN Climate Conference in Dubai, European Union negotiators succeeded, with partners from around the world, to keep alive the possibility of delivering on the commitment in the Paris Agreement to limit global average temperature increase to 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

At COP28, the first Global Stocktake was concluded on 12 December 2023, a process which took stock on where the world stands on climate action and that decided on the ways forward to reach the Paris Agreement and stay below 1.5 C. On the first day of COP28, a historic decision was made with the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund for vulnerable countries with $700m, where the EU and its Member States have contributed more than €400 million, over two thirds of the initial funding pledges.

For the first time in a COP outcome (called “UAE Consensus”), the parties are invited to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. The outcome further calls to triple the production of renewable energies and double energy efficiency by 2030 and accelerate efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power and phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies (see full text attached).

President von der Leyen applauded the decision on increasing renewable energy production and energy efficiency as well as the decision to operationalise the new loss and damage fund. Commissioner Hoekstra highlighted that this historic decision marks the beginning of the end of fossil fuels. Teresa Ribera, Vice-President of the Government of Spain and Minister for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, and co-leader of the EU delegation, congratulated the outcome but also told the summit, in response to criticism from Small Island States, notably Samoa, ”that climate justice still needs our engagement and our work”.

Further reactions

UN Secretary- General Antonio Guterres sent a message to those parties that opposed a fossil fuel phase out, highlighting that “whether you like it or not, fossil fuel phase out is inevitable. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”

The Alliance of Small Islands States, least developed countries as well as scientists, trade unions and environmental and climate groups, acknowledged a significant step forward, while criticising the text strongly as too weak as not deciding on a full fossil fuel phase out of oil, coal and gas, lacking concrete timelines, and keeping loopholes through abatement technologies such as CCS and transition fuels.

Several developing countries (e.g. African Union) also highlighted that more climate finance including on loss and damage (current pledges cover less than 0,2% of estimated financing needs of 400bn$) and actions on climate adaptation would be needed. At the closing plenary, youth representatives slammed the COP-28 outcome due to lack of ambition, saying it would prioritise fossil fuel profit over people’s and young generations lives.

Just Transition Work Programme

In the final hours of the COP-28 climate conference, the first Just Transition Work Programme was adopted. Parties agreed on an outcome very quickly, after the decision to start negotiations for a Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) was adopted only last year at COP-27 in Sharm-el-Sheikh.

One of the most contentious issues during the negotiations was the scope of the JTWP defining the key topics that should be addressed under just transition.

The decision text outlines that the key elements include:

• just transition pathways to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement
• just and equitable transition, which encompasses pathways that include energy, socioeconomic, workforce and other dimensions, all of which must be based on nationally defined development priorities and include social protection so as to mitigate potential impacts associated with the transition
• opportunities, challenges and barriers relating to sustainable development and poverty eradication as part of transitions globally to low emissions and climate resilience, taking into account nationally defined development priorities
• just transition of the workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs in accordance with nationally defined development priorities, including through social dialogue, social protection and the recognition of labour rights
• approaches to enhancing adaptation and climate resilience at the national and international level
• inclusive and participatory approaches to just transitions that leave no one behind
• international cooperation as an enabler of just transition pathways towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement

Positive outcomes include that the work programme puts workers and the creation of decent work at the centre of the just transition, with clear reference to social dialogue, social protection and recognition of labour rights. The latter was a disputed issue, however made it into the final text.

Furthermore, it outlines that a just transition pathways needs to be aligned with climate ambition and the reduction of GHG emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.

This notwithstanding, the text lacks ambition regarding the role of human rights and the rights of vulnerable groups, including women, youth, children and people with disabilities and indigenous people, when taking action to address climate change. This part is included in the preamble, but not in the operational text, as preferred by the EU negotiators. The work programme focuses on implementation along national priorities, but also calls for international cooperation as well as the delivery of means of implementation including through capacity building and climate finance.

The Just Transition Programme will be implemented as follows:

• two global dialogues per year (starting from 2024)
• an annual high-level ministerial round table on just transition
• set-up of a joint contact group

Parties, observers and other non-Party stakeholders are invited to submit proposals for their views on opportunities, best practices, actionable solutions, challenges and barriers as well as topics that should be discussed under the global dialogues. After 2 years, in 2026, the effectiveness of the program will be reviewed and it will be decided how to move forward.

The Trade Union constituency welcomed in the closing plenary that for the first time labour rights have been recognised in a climate decision and social protection was highlighted in regards to climate adaptation, however they criticised that the global stocktake did not highlight the important role of workers to implement the climate goals as “we need workers to build solar panels, wind parks, sustainable transport systems and care for wounded due to climate crisis”.

Finally, during the World Leaders Summit at COP-28,  the Resource Mobilisation Plan of the Viet Nam Just Transition Energy Plan was endorsed by the EU and partners.