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Author(s): Alessandro Girardi, Andreas Reuter and Christian Gayer
The role of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP growth(461 kB)
This paper evaluates the impact of new releases of financial, real activity and survey data on the nowcasting of euro area GDP growth. We show that financial data are only essential for improving nowcasting in the first two months of a nowcast quarter. This contrasts with survey and real data, which are indispensable components throughout the entire nowcasting exercise. When treating variables as if they were all published at the same time and without any time lag, financial series lose all their significance, while survey data remain important. This evidence suggests that survey data offer more than just timeliness for the purpose of nowcasting GDP growth. The latter holds true for financial data only when restricting the analysis to the 2008-09 financial crisis.
KC-AI-14-538-EN-N (online) | KC-AI-14-538-EN-C (print) |
ISBN 978-92-79-35187-7 (online) | ISBN 78-92-79-36153-1 (print) |
doi: 10.2765/71951 (online) | doi: 10.2765/81373 (print) |
Economic Papers are written by the staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The Papers are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by staff and to seek comments and suggestions for further analysis. The views expressed are the author’s alone and do not necessarily correspond to those of the European Commission.
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