Summary for non-specialists(72 kB)  

Total health care expenditure in the EU countries accounts for between 4 and 11% of GDP, out of which between 3 and 9% of GDP is financed from public sources. As it accounts for between 10 and 18 % of total government spending, health care is therefore among the most significant items of social public expenditure. In addition, public expenditure on health care has been growing over most of the second half of the 20th century, not only in absolute terms, but also in relation to the national income.

The paper analyses past developments of health care expenditure in EU Member States. The methodology used expands the set of standard explanatory variables, such as demographic structure, income and health status of the population, by a variable characterising the effect of the technological progress on health care spending.

Subsequently the paper provides a projection of the long-term development of health care expenditure, with the methodology based on the EC-EPC model extended by the impact of technological development.