Archive:Services statistics - short-term indicators

Data from April 2017. Most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Main tables and Database. This article was merged in July 2018 to the articles Services turnover index overview, Services production (volume) index overview and Services producer price index overview.

This article examines recent statistics in relation to developments for service activities in the European Union (EU). Short-term business statistics (STS) are provided in the form of indices that allow the rapid assessment of the economic climate within services, providing a first assessment of recent developments for a range of activities.

Traditionally, short-term business statistics were concentrated on industrial and construction activities, and to a lesser extent retail trade. Since the middle of the 1990s, major developments in official statistics within the EU have seen short-term data collection efforts focus increasingly on services.

Figure 1: Index of turnover, selected service activities, EU-28, 2006–2016
(2010 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_q) and (sts_setu_q)

Table 1: Annual growth rates for the index of turnover, selected services, 2015–2016
(%)
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_a) and (sts_setu_a)

Table 2: Annual growth rates for the volume of sales index, retail trade, 2006–2016
(%)
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_a)

Figure 2: Volume of sales index, selected retail trade activities, EU-28, 2007–2017
(2010 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m)

Figure 3: Producer price indices, transport and communications services, EU-28, 2006–2016
(2010 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_sepp_q)

Figure 4: Producer price indices, selected business services, EU-28, 2006–2016
(2010 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_sepp_q)

Figure 5: Index of services production, transport and postal services, EU-28, 2006–2016
(2010 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_sepr_q)

Figure 6: Index of services production, information and communication services, EU-28, 2006–2016
(2010 = 100)
Source: Eurostat (sts_sepr_q)

Main statistical findings

Turnover: impact of the global financial and economic crisis and subsequent recovery

Services turnover (in current price terms) fell by 8.5 % in the EU-28 in 2009 compared with the year before, but rebounded in 2010 and 2011 increasing by 4.8 % and 5.5 % respectively. Growth continued in each of the next five years (2012–2016), although at a more modest pace, rising annually by an amount in the range of 0.8–3.0 %. Overall growth between 2009 and 2016 was 20.6 %.

Having peaked in various quarters of 2008, EU-28 turnover for all six of the services shown in Figure 1 reached a low point at some stage between the second quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010. From these lows, the strongest growth in turnover across the different services through to the final quarter of 2016 (latest available data) was recorded for administrative and support services (44.5 %), followed by professional, scientific and technical activities (28.3 %). Transportation and storage services and accommodation and food services also recorded relatively high growth rates, as their sales rose by around one quarter, while the growth rates recorded for distributive trades and for information and communication services were within the range of 17–19 %.

Despite the recent growth recorded for all six of these services activities, as can be seen from Figure 1, the losses in turnover resulting from the global financial and economic crisis were more quickly recovered for some services than for others. EU-28 turnover indices for administrative and support services rebounded to their pre-crisis levels by the start of 2011, while for information and communication services and for professional, scientific and technical activities, the pre-crisis peak was passed in the final quarter of 2011. By contrast, it was not until the third quarter of 2013 that sales for accommodation and food services or for distributive trades passed their pre-crisis peak.

Latest annual turnover developments

Among service activities (at the NACE Rev. 2 section level), the fastest rates of turnover growth in 2016 in the EU-28 were recorded for business-oriented services and for accommodation and food services: turnover for professional, scientific and technical activities grew by 6.0 %, while for administrative and support services and for accommodation and food services growth was 5.9 %), and for information and communication activities it was slightly lower (5.3 %). The pace of growth was more subdued for transport and storage and for distributive trades, both recording an increase of 1.4 % compared with the previous year.

The developments for services turnover in 2016 varied greatly among the EU Member States. There were only two where a reduction in services turnover was reported when compared with 2015 — Luxembourg and Greece (both recording declines of just over 1 %) — and there was no change in the level of services turnover in Bulgaria. Elsewhere, services turnover increased, with growth peaking at 9.4 % in Romania and 8.8 % in Hungary; turnover growth in excess of 4.0 % was also recorded in Lithuania, Slovenia, Sweden, Poland, Spain and Croatia.

Table 1 provides an analysis of the two latest rates of change for turnover for each of the services NACE sections covered by short-term business statistics. Growth rates in excess of 10.0 % were recorded in 2016 for: transportation and storage in Romania (for the second consecutive year); accommodation and food services in eight EU Member States (peaking in Romania); information and communication activities in Luxembourg and Estonia; professional, scientific and technical activities in Hungary and Slovakia; and administrative and supporting activities in five Member States (peaking above 20.0 % in Slovakia and Bulgaria). There were positive rates of change for the growth of turnover for all six services shown in Table 1 in nearly half of the Member States, most notably Romania where the increases ranged from 6.1% to 16.4 %. By contrast, in 2016 turnover fell for three out of six of these services in Greece (no information available for accommodation and food services) and for two out of six in the Czech Republic, Estonia, Italy, and Luxembourg.

Volume of retail sales

While turnover shows sales in current prices, the volume of sales indicates the situation once price changes have been removed. Between 2008 and 2012, the volume of sales in retail trade for the EU-28 fell every year, except for 2010, when growth of 0.4 % was recorded (see Table 2); this was followed by a small increase (0.1 %) in the volume of sales index in 2013 and progressively faster growth in 2014 (2.0 %) and 2015 (3.4 %), before growth slowed slightly in 2016 (2.8 %). For comparison, the rate of growth for the volume of sales in retail trade for the EU-28 in 2015 and 2016 was higher than that immediately prior to the onset of the global financial and economic crisis (in 2007).

A monthly series (see Figure 2) shows that the EU-28’s volume of retail sales peaked in February 2008 and fell by a total of 3.8 % through to March 2009. The volume of retail sales remained relatively stable between March 2009 and March 2012 and then declined to a new low in November and December 2012. The latest developments show an overall increase of 11.2 % in the volume of sales between the end of 2012 and February 2017 (the latest period for which data are available at the time of writing).

All parts of retail trade shown in Figure 2 experienced an increase in their volume of sales during the period from December 2012 to February 2017. There were two activities with relatively high overall sales growth during this period: the retail sale of computers and telecoms in specialised stores (where turnover rose by 16.2 %), and the retail sale of medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries in specialised stores (15.3 %). The rates of change for the other retail activities were quite uniform, ranging from 6.3 % for the retailing of food, beverages and tobacco to 10.6 % for the retailing of other household equipment in specialised stores.

Greece — for the eighth consecutive year — and Belgium were the only EU Member States to report that their volume of sales for retail trade fell between 2015 and 2016, down 0.6 % and 2.3 % respectively; Norway and Switzerland also reported a lower volume of sales. By contrast, the volume of sales increased by 10.1 % in Luxembourg and 13.3 % in Romania.

Service prices

Among the services for which an EU-28 price index is shown in Figures 3 and 4 (note that both figures are shown with the same scale) two stand out as having developments which deviate from the general pattern: telecommunications; sea and coastal water transport. Since the start of 2006 (the beginning of each time series), EU-28 producer prices for telecommunications have followed a steady downward path; over a period of almost 11 years, prices fell by a total of 30.1 %. Producer prices for sea and coastal water transport displayed a far higher degree of volatility than the indices for the other services shown in Figures 3 and 4, in particular the magnitude of the fall and subsequent rise in prices related to the global financial and economic crisis was greater, while there was also another rapid fall in prices that started in 2015 and continued until the second quarter of 2016. The net impact of these distinct movements was that the producer price index for sea and coastal water transport services was almost the same in the final quarter of 2016 as it had been in the first quarter of 2006.

Services production: price-adjusted output

Figure 5 presents data for the experimental index of services production for a selection of transport and postal service activities. The EU-28 index for air transport services was generally quite volatile during the period shown (from the end of 2006 to the end of 2016). The impact of the global financial and economic crisis (which started in 2008), can be clearly seen in the developments for transport and postal activities, most notably for air transport. The index for postal and courier activities was (compared with the transport indices) generally quite stable, although it displayed a prolonged fall in output between the second quarter of 2011 and the end of 2013, after which it recovered to its pre-crisis highs.

Figure 6 presents similar data for EU-28 indices within information and communication services. Telecommunication services displayed steady output growth during the whole of the period shown, with the effects of the crisis hardly noticeable. The two other services presented displayed stronger growth over this period, albeit interrupted during 2009 by the global crisis. Computer programming and related consultancy services recorded a relatively rapid pace of growth in output, as did information service activities (such as data processing, data hosting and web portals), although its growth in output was somewhat more volatile.

Data sources and availability

Short-term business statistics (STS) on services are compiled within the same methodological framework as short-term statistics on industry and construction. The article on short-term developments in industry and construction provides additional information on a variety of subjects, including: the STS Regulation; the different forms of presentation of indices, namely unadjusted (gross data), calendar adjusted and seasonally adjusted; the implementation of NACE Rev. 2; and the five-yearly exercise to rebase STS indices to a new base year.

The turnover index and the employment index are compiled for retail trade and for other services. For retail trade one additional indicator is provided, namely the volume index of retail sales, which is effectively a deflated turnover index. Furthermore, producer price indices have been developed for a selection of services in recent years and, building on the availability of these data, Eurostat has recently started to publish data for the index of services production.

The index of turnover shows the development of sales in value terms. Note that prices for some services have actually been falling, perhaps due to market liberalisation and increased competition (for example, telecommunications and other technology-related activities). In such cases, the growth rates observed for turnover value indices for some activities would be even greater in volume (deflated) terms.

Producer prices (output prices) represent the prices from the point of view of the producer. The prices are transaction prices and take into account discounts, rebates, surcharges and similar price determining elements but not product taxes.

The index of services production shows the monthly development of the price-adjusted gross output (turnover) of a selection of service activities. Eurostat estimates data for the EU Member States based on turnover indices and indices of services producer prices and combines these to produce experimental time series for the EU-28 and the euro area. It is expected that, in the future, Member States will provide national data for the index of services production (as they do for all other indices) and these will then replace the estimates produced by Eurostat; this is already the case for Swedish data.

Retail trade indices have particular importance because of the role of retail trade as an interface between producers and final customers: as such, turnover and volume of sales indices may be used to provide an early indication of the development of final demand by households. The volume measure of the retail trade turnover index is more commonly referred to as the index of the volume of (retail) sales. To eliminate the price effect on turnover in retail trade, a deflator of sales is used. This deflator is an index with a similar methodology to that of a producer price index, but it is adapted specifically for retail trade; it reflects price changes in the goods sold rather than those in the retail sales service provided.

Context

Some of the most important STS indicators are a set of principal European economic indicators (PEEIs) that are essential to the European Central Bank (ECB) for conducting monetary policy within the euro area. Three PEEIs concern services short-term business statistics, namely indices covering: the volume of sales in retail trade, turnover in other services and producer prices of other services.

Further Eurostat information

Publications

News releases and Statistics in Focus

Main tables

Short-term business statistics (t_sts), see:

Trade and services (t_sts_ts)

Wholesale and retail trade (NACE G) (t_sts_wrt)

Services (t_sts_ser)

Database

Short-term business statistics (sts), see:

Trade and services (sts_ts)

Wholesale and retail trade (NACE G) (sts_wrt)

Turnover and volume of sales index (sts_wrt_ts)

Services (sts_os)

Turnover in services (sts_os_t)

Service producer prices (SPPI) (sts_os_pp)

Dedicated section

Short-term business statistics

Methodology / Metadata

Source data for tables and figures (MS Excel)

Services short-term indicators: tables and figures

External links